Family-owned furniture and barware business Barrel-Art has weathered three US presidential elections, but the lead-up to the 2024 race has introduced a new layer of unpredictability. Sales slowed in the months before Election Day as the business world and consumers alike held their breath, awaiting the election's outcome. However, the moment the race was called, demand for Barrel-Art's handcrafted, whiskey and wine barrel products surged once more.

Yet, the post-election landscape is casting a different shadow this time for small business owners like Barrel-Art's Michael Prieto, who are left in a state of uncertainty about the future. While the re-election of President Donald Trump may be a familiar sight in the White House, his ambitious campaign promises have sown more doubts than certainties, according to John Arensmeyer, CEO of Small Business Majority, a center-left advocacy group. "Business owners are grappling with the reality of the president-elect's campaign rhetoric, unsure of which policies will materialize and how much impact they can have," Arensmeyer explained.

For those already apprehensive about the economic climate, the path ahead seems fraught with even greater risks. "It's a period of pure uncertainty," Arensmeyer remarked. Prieto's primary concern is the potential impact of tariffs and trade restrictions on his US suppliers, potentially making materials more scarce or expensive. "I'm trying to be optimistic, but I can't help but be skeptical about some of the proposed policies," he confessed.

In the pre-election period, Prieto adopted a cautious approach, not wanting to commit Barrel-Art to two divergent paths. Post-election, he expressed hope that the new administration's "Made in America" initiatives and a more favorable lending environment could benefit his small, family-run business. However, Barrel-Art is operating with a leaner staff, stretching Prieto's hours and grappling with inflation's toll on the business, increasing costs while diminishing customers' disposable income. "It's becoming increasingly difficult due to inflation," he noted. "Our products are discretionary, not necessities, so if people's disposable income shrinks, ours will be the first to suffer."

The company is also entering the critical Christmas season with a larger credit card debt, a consequence of slower sales due to the election and the ongoing recovery from a devastating fire the previous year. Prieto is keen to see a resurgence of small business lending products like the Economic Injury Disaster Loans offered during the pandemic. "We've had to borrow more than usual, so access to cheaper funds would have been a boon," he said.

Small Business Majority, while yet to conduct a comprehensive post-election survey, has already heard similar concerns from its network of 80,000 small businesses. Top worries include the impact of tariffs on supply chains and costs, stricter immigration policies that could affect food and labor supply, the future of Affordable Care Act subsidies, and potential changes to federal contract preferences for women- and minority-owned businesses.

Despite their inherently optimistic nature, some small business owners are already stockpiling inventory or delaying new hires until the situation becomes clearer. Man & Machine, a manufacturer of waterproof keyboards and computer mice for the medical field, is accelerating imports to front-load a year's worth of production in just four to five months, aiming to avoid potential price hikes. "If I wait, I'm lost," said Clifton Broumand, the company's founder and CEO. "Without sufficient inventory, a 20% tax could kill sales."

Daycare owner Janna Rodriguez is advocating harder for the childcare industry, which she says desperately needs federal support. She recommends an enrollment-based payment system, increased public-private partnerships, professional development for educators, a comprehensive benefits system, a tiered reimbursement system, and infrastructure grants. Rodriguez's Innovative Daycare Corp. serves primarily low-income and minority families and is already stretched thin. Federal funding cuts could force her to lay off staff, reducing capacity and compliance.

JD Opel, who opened ICON Hair Studio days before the election, is taking a pragmatic approach: "You deal with the hand you're dealt and play to win." He's concerned about the impact of tariffs on his hair products and the potential financial strain on his customers if those costs are passed on.

Jeff Wood's Coldwater Capital, a real estate development firm, jumped into expansion mode post-election. Wood credits the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for fueling his company's growth, particularly the hyper-depreciation benefits for businesses like car washes. The tax cuts excited investors, leading to the expansion of facilities across five states, employing around 350 people.

However, the owner of a Los Angeles-based talent agency fears the Trump administration could have a chilling effect on human rights. Reel Management represents actors in reality and unscripted television, focusing on diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. With a Republican-controlled Congress, the owner fears that efforts to prohibit DEI and LGBTQ+ events could spread, impacting both community building and his business's bottom line. "Hate is difficult, and when it impacts your bottom line, it's even more so," he said. "This is a struggle and a concern of the civil rights movement of our time, and I believe in being on the right side of history."